Cognitive and Motivational Determinants of Normalcy Bias
Date/Time: Friday, March 21, 2025, 1:00 to 2:00 pm
Online via Zoom
Join Zoom Meeting:
https://rutgers.zoom.us/j/91246177998?pwd=sJ6N4cC4wtSqzf05t9WdCHSsYKYi6q.1
FEATURED SPEAKER: Richard John, University of Southern California and DHS CREATE and SENTRY Centers
Co-Investigators: Robin Dillon, Georgetown University, Nicholas Scurich, University of California, Irvine
Abstract:
Officers at the United States Coast Guard (USCG) Search and Rescue (SAR) make a variety of high-stakes decisions under conditions of uncertainty and imperfect information. A voluminous body of psychological research has documented that many decisions in these situations are subject to various biases that can lead to poor outcomes. For the USCG, these can be catastrophic outcomes, such as when the USCG fails to initiate a search and rescue or when a search and rescue mission is unnecessarily initiated, putting officers’ well-being at risk and incurring significant financial expenses. This project seeks to identify potential cognitive and motivational biases that might impact USCG decision making and determine how these biases affect decisions that result in normalcy bias, wherein warning signals and threats are disbelieved. We utilize a normative Signal Detection Theory (SDT) framework, which partitions decision accuracy into (1) the ability to discriminate signals from noise and (2) the selection of a decision threshold. This framework illustrates how cognitive and motivational biases can affect both components in SAR decisions made by the USCG. We report empirical behavioral research to understand deviations from the normative SDT model, including Normalcy Bias.
Bio:
Richard John is a Professor of Psychology and the Area Head for Quantitative Methods and Computational Psychology at the University of Southern California. He is a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Threats and Emergencies (CREATE). His research focuses on topics such as (1) risk perception and decision making for extreme events, (2) modeling adaptive adversaries, (3) decision making in forensic and legal contexts, and (4) decision and risk analysis methodology development. He has consulted on several large projects involving expert elicitation, including analysis of nuclear power plant risks and cost and schedule risks for tritium supply alternatives.
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